class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Assesing and Managing <br> Large Marine Predators ### Dan Ovando ### University of Washington ### 2022/03/03 --- # A Quantiative Fisheries Ecologist > I use methods and ideas from ecology and economics to help understand and manage social-ecological systems. I study... - Fisheries assessment and management - Social-ecological impacts of policies - Predictive modeling Using... - Bayesian methods - Econometrics - Simulation modeling Based on... - Open and reproducible science - Collaboration --- class: center, middle, inverse ### A welcoming hub for interdisciplinary research on the <br> functioning and management of social-ecological systems --- # Large Marine Predator Research .pull-left[ - Fisheries management has had many successes - Target and incidental catch threatens many top marine predators - Damages oceans and people - Solutions must address - Challenges of marine ecosystems - Human incentives ].pull-right[  ] --- class: center, middle, inverse # Coasean Approaches to Bigeye Overfishing^* .footnote[ *Yes, I know, we'll talk about it ] --- # Bigeye & Skipjack Tuna in the <br> Western & Central Pacific Ocean .pull-left[ **At the time we started this** Bigeye tuna (*Thunnus obesus*) * `\(F/F_{MSY}\)` = 1.5 * `\(B/B_{MSY}\)` = 1, but presumably headed down Large part of mortality caused by **incidental capture** of juvenile bigeye in purse-seine targeting skipjack tuna (*Katsuwonus pelamis*) Problem was known for a long time - Why wasn't it solved? ].pull-right[ .center[] .footnote[ISSF 2012] ] --- # Breakdown in Incentives .center[] .right[[Ovando *et al*. (2020)](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/711853)] --- ## Is Overfishing Rational? * Bigeye catches needed to be reduced by ~33% to get to `\(F/F_{MSY}\)` of 1 * Requires 81% decrease in purse seine BET if reductions from PS alone * Assuming a 6% bigeye rate for purse-seine... * Would require a **62%** reduction in targeted skipjack catch * At a cost of **$1.7 billion**: more than twice value of targeted bigeye * Value of skipjack losses > entire value of targeted bigeye fishery * Does this explain persistent overfishing? --- # A Coasean Bargain * Coase suggests an alternative solution * Markets allow costs and benefits to align * "Beneficiary pays" rather than "polluter pays" <br> <br> <br> <br> .center[**What if bigeye tuna interests subsidized <br> FAD-free days in bigeye hotspots?**] --- # Model .center[] .right[[Ovando *et al*. (2020)](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/711853)] --- # Solutions .center[] .right[[Ovando *et al*. (2020)](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/711853)] --- # A Bargain for Tuna .pull-left[ - Coasean analysis helps identify *imbalances in costs and benefits* - Particularly for highly migratory species, can point out **bottlenecks** - Direct fishery benefits to bigeye do not outweigh costs to skipjack - But, provides floor for *willingness to pay* - Changing `\(L_{\infty}\)` not a solution we'd considered... ].pull-right[  .footnote[Shane Gross/Minden Pictures] ] --- class: center, middle, inverse # Managing Mobile Species in a Dynamic Ocean ??? - Many marine top predators - Move large distances - Have dynamic habitats - Intersect with growing and changing demands from people - Climate change shifting distributions --- # MPAs & Marine Predators > “Effective protected and conserved areas to cover at least 30% of the planet by 2030” (IUCN) >“The Biden-Harris Administration’s policy, as written in Executive Order 14008, calls for the U.S. to conserve at least 30 percent of U.S. lands and waters by 2030” - Growing call for MPAs to manage marine populations <br> <br> <br> <br> .center[**How do we manage top marine predators in a dynamic ocean?**] --- # MPAs and Marine Predators .pull-left[ One strategy: **Design MPAs that move with species** - Better bycatch outcomes - Lower fishery costs The challenge... - Incorporating dynamics of fish and fleets - Dynamic planning given imperfect information - Causal inference of spatial policies ].pull-right[ .center[] ] --- # MPAs and Marine Predators <iframe src="https://danovando.github.io/marlin/" width="80%" height="400px" data-external="1"></iframe> --- # Effects of Spatial Policies .center[] --- # When Do Things Go Wrong? .center[] --- # Optimizing Spatial Policies .center[] --- # Future Directions .pull-left[ - Develop `marlin` as a platform for spatial policy evaluation - Expand to - Marine mammals - Seabirds - Turtles - Confront models with data - Effects of spatial policies - Tradeoffs between top predator conservation and fisheries .center[**Developing solutions for managing large marine predators**] ].pull-right[ .center[] ] --- # Teaching & Mentorship Teaching is a core reason I want to be part of the UW - Revitalizing "Super advanced R" - Seeking out opportunity to teach FSH 323 I believe in **active** and **applied** learning - Fundamentals of open and reproducible science - Experience with real-world problem solving - Preparing students for careers in and out of Academia <br> .center[**Faculty have a responsibility to create <br> a welcoming and supportive community**] --- # Funding Strategy ### Strong record of extramural funding - Doris Duke Conservation Fellow - NOAA Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Fellow ### Current Funding - NOAA Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant: Increasing U.S. Seafood Production through Effective Conservation of Bycatch Species - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association --- # Funding Strategy - Focus on collaborations with management bodies - NOAA - RFMOs - NGOs & Foundations - Current funding and collaboration with TNC - Prior work with Waitt, Walton, Packard, Moore - Industry - Fishing sector has incentive to support effective management - Tech sector untapped resource supporting big data and computation - Support for **capacity building** .center[**Collaborating with affected communities to fund and conduct research on conservation and management of large marine predators**] ??? National Catch Share Program and Magnuson-Stevens Act Implementation North Pacific Research Board - focus on marine mammals, salmon in Alaska, salmon sharks Build off of Global Fishing Watch partnership https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/ecosystems/shark-research-alaska --- # Thank You! .pull-left[ Questions? slides: .small[[danovando.github.io/predators-uw/slides](https://danovando.github.io/predators-uw/slides)] email: danovan@uw.edu website: [danovando.com](https://www.weirdfishes.blog/) <a href="https://twitter.com/danovand0?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" class="twitter-follow-button" data-show-count="false">Follow @danovand0</a><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> ].pull-right[ .center[] ] --- class: center, middle, inverse # Extras --- # A Coasean Bargain * Is regulation the only solution? * Resistance will be strong * Enforcement costs high * Coase suggests an alternative solution * Markets allow costs and benefits to align * "Beneficiary pays" rather than "polluter pays" * Can benefits of bigeye conservation outweigh costs? - Purse seine BET rate is low in aggregate - Hot-spots in space and time .center[**What if bigeye tuna interests subsidized <br> FAD-free days in bigeye hotspots?**] --- # MPAs and Marine Predators .pull-left[ Critical dynamics to consider - Marine species move - Heterogeneous and dynamic habitat - Fishing fleets respond **How do these dynamics affect performance of static and dynamic MPAs**? ].pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#/Users/danovan/teaching/predators-uw/imgs/bio_anim.gif" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] ---